The recovery from the $57,800 July 1 cycle low steadied after yesterday's break: BTC trades at $64,526, up from yesterday's $62,881 (+2.6%), on a 24-hour range of $63,884–$64,670. The low held comfortably above both a fresh EW swing low ($62,550) and the invalidation level ($61,760) that keeps the near-term bullish 1-2 setup alive, and price reclaimed the 200W MA ($63,034) just one day after losing it — now $1,492 clear of it. ATH drawdown eased to −48.9% (285 days post-ATH), from −50.2% yesterday. On-chain metrics ticked back up across the board: MVRV Z-Score 0.36 (from 0.31), weekly RSI 39.4 (from 37.6), and Puell Multiple 0.64 (from 0.60) — all recovering from yesterday's steep pullback. From the July 1 low, the recovery is now +$6,726 (+11.6%) at the current price, back up from yesterday's +8.8% and nearly matching the July 16 peak (+11.9%) — the historical ~10% average July gain in bear-market years remains comfortably exceeded on an intraday basis.

Fresh Elliott Wave research sharpens the near-term picture with precise, granular levels that refine the broader $63,630–$64,627 zone flagged earlier this week. Bitcoin remains in a potential wave-two corrective bounce, having rallied roughly 13% from the July low — modest next to 2022's comparable ~43% bounce, leaving room for further upside toward the $69K–$72K resistance zone, though as a countertrend move within a larger bear market it may lack strength. On the shorter timeframe, price is tracing a possible ABC structure, with the current move potentially forming wave C (a five-wave rally). Key levels: invalidation (near-term, smaller degree) at $61,760 — must hold to keep the bullish 1-2 setup alive; the last swing low at $62,550 — a break below shifts focus to the invalidation/major support; breakout confirmation above $64,880, with next resistances at $66,290, $69,165, and $72,165. Two scenarios (a more bullish count vs. a deeper B-wave/wave-two pullback) share the same main-support area — as long as it holds, the broader thesis of a wave-two bounce toward $69K–$72K stays intact; this is likely just part of a larger corrective rally within an ongoing bear market. Note the scale distinction: this $61,760 level is a smaller-degree, near-term invalidation for the current 1-2 setup, separate from the larger-degree $83,000 hard invalidation (May swing high) that governs the full wave-2/C bullish count.

Today's reclaim keeps the wave-C bounce structure intact: a breakout above $64,880 would confirm continuation toward the resistance ladder ($66,290 → $69,165 → $72,165), inside the full $66,233–$76,638 resistance zone, reinforced by the short-term-holder realized price (~$68–69K), the 100% Fibonacci extension, the 21-week EMA, and the 200-day MA. The major support zone ($58,926–$61,217) remains the deeper level that would actually change the broader thesis on a reversal. After a resistance-cluster peak: a C-wave pullback into August/September toward a Fibonacci support and liquidity zone near $55–57K. After that: the final bear-market low around October, targeting $39–43K — corroborated by four independent sources: the ~1-year-from-ATH timing, a cycle-timing tool that correctly called the May top, a dominant 258-day price cycle pointing to a low around October 2026 (±30 days), and a day-count cycle-timing analysis (~100 days out). The bear market entering its final quarter: each successive down-leg has been weaker (~37-39% initial, ~31% third decline), countertrend bounces are getting larger — classic late-bear structure. The "mini bear market early bottom" thesis (Q2 2026) is considered speculative; the preferred analytical read is trust the signals and wait for actual confirmation.

One important qualitative point from the four-year cycle analysis: the current cycle feels worse than 2018 despite the similar structural pattern. The reason is the nature of the top: the 2018 ATH (~$20K) was followed by euphoria and altcoin rotation; the 2026 ATH (~$126K) was followed by apathy with no altcoin rotation. Tops driven by apathy and late-cycle exhaustion tend to be more psychologically painful in the downturn — but structurally, the four-year cycle pattern is tracking the same playbook.

Key Levels

⚠ Support held, 200W MA reclaimed — the near-term picture stabilizes. BTC's low ($63,884) stayed clear of both the fresh EW swing low ($62,550) and the invalidation line ($61,760), and price reclaimed the 200W MA ($63,034) one day after losing it. MVRV, RSI, and Puell all ticked back up. Fresh EW research pinpoints breakout confirmation above $64,880, with next resistances at $66,290, $69,165, and $72,165. Bear-ending confirmation still requires the larger-degree criteria: a confirmed 5-wave impulsive move above resistance + a decisive close above $83,000 (May swing high) + corrective pullback holding a higher low (the larger-degree "1-2 setup"). None are met. MVRV Z 0.36, RSI 39.4, Puell 0.64 are bounce readings, not bottom readings. Realized price (~$53K) not visited. The rally is real but corrective — the terminal low is still ahead. Primary zone: $39k–$43k, October 2026.

The midterm-year four-year cycle is still executing on schedule; yesterday's break and today's reclaim were the bounce's first real stress test, and it held. The H1/H2 strategy triggered on July 1 (new low on H2 day 1); the July window of strength delivered a two-day new-high streak (peaking at $65,600, +13.5% intraday on July 16), a break of near-term support and the 200W MA on July 17, and a reclaim of both today. This still matches the seasonality pattern flagged weeks earlier: a low in late June/early July, a rally, a dip around the inflation release, and further chop into late July/August, closely mirroring Bitcoin's 2018 mid-term-cycle behavior. Fresh EW research adds a precise near-term framework: Bitcoin remains in a potential wave-two corrective bounce, having rallied ~13% from the July low so far — modest next to 2022's comparable ~43% bounce, leaving room for further upside toward $69K–$72K. On the shorter timeframe, price is tracing a possible ABC structure, with the current move potentially forming wave C (a five-wave rally); key levels are an invalidation at $61,760 (must hold for the bullish 1-2 setup), a last swing low at $62,550, and breakout confirmation above $64,880 with a resistance ladder at $66,290 → $69,165 → $72,165. Target once confirmed: the broader resistance cluster at $69K–$76.6K, reinforced by the 100% Fibonacci extension, the 21-week EMA, the 200-day MA, and a trend line from prior highs — with the short-term-holder realized price (~$68–69K) adding breakeven-seller pressure right at that zone. After that peak: a C-wave pullback in August/September toward the $55–57K Fibonacci support zone, and then the final bear-market low in October, targeting $39–43K. The October timing arises naturally from the approximately one-year bear duration: the 2025 ATH was in October, making October 2026 the ~1-year anniversary — consistent with the 2022 cycle (~1 year), the 364–406-day historical range, and a ~60–70% total drawdown versus 2022's ~75%. That timing is now corroborated four ways: the ATH-anniversary math, a cycle-timing tool that correctly called the May top, a dominant 258-day price cycle independently pointing to an October 2026 low (±30 days), and a separate day-count cycle analysis (day 1333 of the current cycle vs. days 1436/1432 for the prior two cycles' bottoms) suggesting a low roughly 100 days out.

The four-year cycle framework is not a rigid prediction machine — the analyst who champions it acknowledges it involves recognizing predictable windows of strength and weakness and DCA-ing accordingly, rather than timing exact bottoms. The fresh EW research reinforces the same posture at the technical level: two competing wave counts (a more bullish white count vs. a deeper B-wave/wave-two pullback) share the same main-support area, so as long as that holds, the broader $69K–$72K bounce thesis stays intact regardless of which count is precisely right. The key insight: the H2 of midterm years has been the accumulation window in both 2018 and 2022, and it has now activated in 2026 exactly as expected. The strategy: begin DCA-ing in H2, use the wave-2 peak (when it arrives in the $69K–$76.6K cluster) as a reduce/exit window, concentrate the majority of capital into the October $39–43K zone. This is not a bear-is-over call — it is a bear-is-entering-its-final-phase call. The terminal low is still ahead.